Debating India


Exit Polls Confirm Predictions

Wednesday 21 April 2004

While the Election Commission allowed exit-polls, the predictions of almost all the major TV channels conform more or less to the opinion polls so far.

BJP Congress Others
Aaj Tak 93 44 3
Star News 80 53 7
Sahara 82 55 3
Zee-Taleem 63-78 37-50 16
1999 Actuals 88 46 6

Exit polls conducted by major television networks have placed NDA ahead of Congress and its allies in the 140 constituencies that went to polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections held today.

While ’Aaj Tak’ put NDA on the top with 93 seats, five more than in the last elections, ’Star News’ projected that the BJP-led combine would get 80 seats.

Congress and allies were projected to get 53 by ’Star News’ and 44 by ’Aaj Tak’, while the two channels gave "Others" three and seven respectively.

The Zee-Taleem survey showed NDA getting between 63 and 78 seats and the Congress and its allies between 37 and 50 seats. It gave up to 16 seats to "Others".

The DRS-Sahara exit poll showed the saffron-led combine getting 82 seats, six less than in 1999, while the Congress getting 55 - nine more than last time and "Others" getting 3.


Based on the assumption that similar polling trends would continue in the remaining phases of elections, the ’Aaj Tak’ gave "early seat projections" for all the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, predicting 288 for NDA, 159 for Congress and allies and 96 for "Others".

’Aaj Tak’, which made its predictions on the basis of interviews of 31,108 electors spread over 16 states and UTs, said that both NDA and Congress and allies would improve their vote share by four per cent each while other parties parties would lose four per cent.

According to it, NDA would get 49 per cent in the first phase, Congress and allies 44 per cent and other parties seven per cent.


By and large the polls today showed a sweep for the BJP in Gujarat, but a neck and neck race in Maharashtra. While the Aaj Tak polls showed BJP getting 23 out of 26 seats in gujarat, Zee showed the party getting between 18 and 20 seats and the rest going to Congress.

In Maharashtra, the polls showed the Congress-NCP winning in 12 out of the 24 seats for which polls were held today. The BJP-Shiv Sena is likely to get 11 while the BSP two to three, the Aaj Tak Survey said.

Zee projected 10-12 seats to Cong/NCP and 6-8 seats to BJP-Shiv Sena.

In Andhra Pradesh, TDP-BJP combine was seen to be lagging behind with eight while Cong and allies were getting 13 in 21 of the 42 seats that went to polls, Aaj tak said. Zee gave the Congress combine 10-12 seats and the TDP-BJP 8-10 seats.

Assembly Situation

Surprisingly, according to Zee the TDP and BJP were doing well in Assembly polls and were ahead in 63-71 seats while the Congress was close with leads in 70-76 of the 147 seats where polling was held today.

Aaj Tak survey in Karnataka showed BJP ahead with 11 seats and Congress in four of the 15 Lok Sabha constituencies which went to polls, while the Zee gave BJP 3-5 seats, Congress 4-6 and JD(Secular) 2-4 seats.

In Bihar where polling was held in 11 seats, JD(U)-BJP combine was ahead in nine, while Congress-RJD was ahead in 2-3 seats, Zee showed, while Aaj Tak gave same projections.

Aaj Tak showed Congress getting two seats in Orissa and the BJP-BJD combine ahead in nine of the 11 seats, while Zee gave BJP-BJD 5-9 and Congress 3-5. In Jharkhand, Zee showed BJP ahead in five of the six seats, while Aaj Tak gave it lead in four seats with the remaining going to Congress. In Chhattisgarh, they showed the BJP ahead in 5-7 and Congress ahead in 3-5 in the eleven seats of the state.


in Outlook India, Wednesday, April 21, 2004.

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